The Draft Night That Broke Logic

I was on my couch in Chicago, half-watching ESPN while eating cold ramen — standard Tuesday night for any self-respecting sports nerd with student debt. Then it hit: the Houston Rockets picked Jabari Smith Jr. at No. 16.

My first thought? “Wait… who?”

No hype. No highlight reel on draft night reels. Just a quiet kid from Florida State with decent size and even better footwork — nothing flashy, nothing expected.

But fast forward three years, and now I’m watching him average 22 PPG on 50/40/90 shooting splits while guarding All-Stars like he’s paid to do it.

What happened? And why did the Thunder pass?

The Ripple Effect of One Missed Pick

Let’s be real: if Oklahoma City had kept Jabari Smith Jr., they wouldn’t be chasing backup center contracts like it’s an Olympic sport.

Instead of signing Joel Embiid-level replacements in free agency (like Haakon Harkless), they’d have had a young, versatile big man already in their system.

But nope — they passed on him for someone else who never quite clicked.

Now look at the irony: Smith is averaging nearly 20 points, 8 rebounds, and nearly 3 assists per game — all while playing defense like he’s been trained by Coach K himself.

Meanwhile, their current roster is built around depth charts from the last decade.

Why This Draft Was Actually Genius (When You Look Closer)

Most people saw this as a reach or filler pick — but let me give you the real breakdown:

• He shot 47% from beyond arc as a rookie (not bad for a stretch four).
• His defensive win shares ranked top 15 among rookies last season.
• He played over 30 minutes per game in his sophomore year without burning out.
• Most importantly: he doesn’t need constant ball-handling to thrive — perfect fit in today’s pace-and-space NBA era.

And yes… let’s talk about that stat line again: The No. 2 pick last year has yet to average even double-digit scoring over two seasons combined. Yet here we are — jabari smith jr leading the charge as if he was drafted #1 all along.

The Real Lesson: Don’t Judge Picks by Positional Needs Alone

This isn’t just about player development; it’s about mindset. The Rockets didn’t grab him because they needed ‘a power forward.’ They grabbed him because he was what modern basketball demands: smart off-ball movement + elite spacing + defensive versatility + low turnover rate across two seasons.

The Thunder? They went for raw athleticism and potential without checking long-term fit or team chemistry metrics. That’s not bad strategy — that’s outdated strategy in an evolving league where IQ matters more than hops anymore (sorry, D-Rose).

And honestly? I’d take Jabari over any lottery bust from that class right now — including that top-two name everyone still insists is ‘the future.’ The future? It already arrived… wearing No. 4 for Houston with zero fanfare but maximum impact.