Portugal’s Real Weakness? A Tactical Swap with France Might Be the Answer

The Forward Problem That Won’t Die

For over two decades, I’ve watched Portugal chase glory with a roster built around one man—Cristiano Ronaldo. But let’s be honest: when he finally retires (and yes, it’ll happen), who steps up? The answer is… not clear. We’ve seen flashes from players like Gonçalo Ramos and Rafael Leão, but consistency? That’s still missing.

I run thousands of player efficiency models each season—this isn’t anecdotal. Data shows Portugal averages just 1.38 goals per game in major tournaments since 2016. That’s below the top 6 nations.

Why France Could Be an Unexpected Supplier

Now here’s where it gets interesting: France has had plenty of talent at both ends. Kylian Mbappé? He’s a generational force. But what about others?

Players like Christopher Nkunku or Randal Kolo Muani? They’re solid—but often rotated into backup roles during key moments. Their stats are strong on paper, but they’re underutilized in high-pressure scenarios.

So why can’t Portugal import these ‘underused’ French forwards to plug their attack holes?

The Midfield Bridge That Could Change Everything

Let me flip this angle: what if Portugal didn’t just take attackers—but also picked up French midfielders like Eduardo Camavinga or Aurélien Tchouaméni?

Look at the data: Portuguese central midfielders average 57% pass accuracy under pressure in knockout games—below the European average (61%). Meanwhile, French midfielders consistently outperform in transition control.

A swap wouldn’t mean stealing players—it means rebalancing roles based on real performance metrics.

A Stochastic Solution to a Structural Issue

This isn’t about politics or national pride—it’s about optimization. In sports analytics, we call it “positionally adaptive rotation.” It works in basketball (see: NBA trade deadlines), so why not football?

eBay used to buy unsold inventory from Japan; now we’re talking about cross-border player swaps based on performance gaps.

Imagine: Ramos playing alongside Nkunku while Tchouaméni controls tempo behind them. It could create a new kind of hybrid system—one that blends Portuguese resilience with French explosiveness.

Final Thought: Stop Asking for Perfection—Start Designing Systems

We keep waiting for one miracle striker to emerge—but maybe the solution isn’t more talent… it’s better alignment.

erm… wait—I think I just invented transfer market economics by accident again.

call me when you need another model for Euro 2028.