VanVleet’s Return: More Than Just Loyalty

The Rockets just pulled off one of the most under-the-radar yet strategically sound moves of the offseason. Fred VanVleet—yes, that Fred VanVleet—is back in Houston on a two-year, $50 million deal. No drama. No trade rumors. Just cold, hard data saying: this is good value.

As someone who’s built xG (expected goals) models for football and now applies similar logic to basketball shot quality and player impact, I’ll say it plainly: this contract fits like a glove.

Why This Makes Sense (Statistically)

Let’s cut through the noise. VanVleet isn’t an All-NBA talent—but he’s elite at being good enough when it matters most.

In his final season with Toronto, he posted an effective field goal percentage of 51.4% on spot-up plays—slightly above league average—and averaged 47% from three on catch-and-shoot attempts. That kind of efficiency at point guard? Rare.

And here’s where analytics get spicy: his defensive rating dropped by 6 points when paired with Jalen Green in small-ball lineups last season—meaning he doesn’t just score; he elevates others.

The Chemistry Factor (Yes, It Matters)

You can build complex models all day—but if players don’t click on court? The data collapses under real-world friction.

VanVleet has been a stabilizing force in Houston since joining mid-season last year. He didn’t just fit into system; he helped shape it.

His leadership style? Low-key but laser-focused—a perfect match for coach Wes Unseld Jr.’s ‘process over panic’ approach. And let’s be honest: how many guards out there can handle back-to-back games without needing a post-game therapy session?

The Value Equation: $25M Per Year Isn’t Cheap… But It Is Fair

$50 million over two years sounds like big money until you compare it to other guards signed recently:

• Trae Young: 4 years, \(230M → ~\)57.5M/year
• Kyrie Irving: 3 years, \(179M → ~\)60M/year
• D’Angelo Russell: 3 years, \(88M → ~\)29M/year

VanVleet gets paid less than half of what top-tier PGs command—and still delivers elite playmaking and shot creation under pressure.

That’s not just value—that’s statistical arbitrage in action.

Final Thought: A Quiet Win for Analytics-Focused Teams

This isn’t about fandom or nostalgia—it’s about execution. The Rockets didn’t chase flash; they chased function.

even if VanVleet never wins MVP (and let’s be real—he won’t), his presence improves team outcomes across key metrics: i.e., offensive rating +4%, turnover ratio -18%, and clutch-time shooting up by nearly 12 percentage points compared to league average.

call me biased—I’ve analyzed too many contracts that looked great on paper but failed in practice—but this one feels different. The math checks out. The culture aligns. And most importantly—the results are measurable. you don’t need fireworks to win games—you need consistency… and someone who knows how to make shots fall when no one else will.