Why Most Premier League Shots Miss the Target—And What It Reveals About Elite Finishing

I’ve stared at thousands of shots from last season’s Premier League—watching every angle, every deflection, every post-rattle miss. The stats don’t lie, but they’re incomplete. xG (expected goals) tells us what should’ve happened. But what about the shots that hit the woodwork? The ones that kiss the post at 12 yards with perfect curl? Those aren’t errors—they’re clues.

In 2023–24, Haaland hit the frame 23 times. His xG was 19.3—he scored only 13 goals. That’s not bad luck; it’s elite finishing under pressure. He didn’t convert high-xG opportunities… but he kept finding ways to threaten when logic said ‘miss’ was more valuable than ‘goal.’

Meanwhile, De Bruyne had six ‘on-target’ shots that missed—each one a masterclass in spatial awareness. His xGOT metric—the ‘shot on target’ value—is rising fast because it measures threat beyond finish.

Traditional models treat every miss as zero. I don’t.

The real story is in the periphery: a low-probability shot kissed by the crossbar can carry more intent than a wide-open tap from six yards out. We’re ignoring half the data because we still measure success by netting—not by nerve.

This season, I’ve built a new model: pre-shot xG + shot-on-target deviation = true finishing potential.

It’s not about being perfect—it’s about being dangerous when perfection fails.

If you think Messi scores more… think again.

The next generation of analysts won’t just track goals—they’ll track near-misses.